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General Forum -> On the subject of currencies
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2010-03-01 22:25:01
1 of 17
#3915
I think of how many times I've heard about how the dollar is doomed and the only way for it to go is down, etc. etc.

http://www.collabinvest.net/fv-m/yermo/post/303/FXE-Cur...
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Posted by: Yermo
2010-03-02 01:27:22
2 of 17
#3919
in reply to #3915
Can you elaborate for those of us who don't speak Financial Chart?
Posted by: Ian
2010-03-02 01:53:18
3 of 17
#3920
in reply to #3919
Because of the increase in the debt load of the US and the fact that so much "funny money" has been injected into the US economy most people believe that the US is in for run-away inflation and a devalued currency. Even Warran Buffet's partner, Charlie Munger, has said the US, because of this debt load amongst other issues, is in danger of collapse.

And for quite some time the value of the US dollar has been falling pretty steadily.

However, despite all this, over the last two months the value of the Euro against the dollar (which is what the chart graphs) has been steadily falling ... i.e. the US currency is getting much stronger relative to the Euro (and most other currencies).

This is in part due to the situation in Greece but other factors are likely in play.

I heard a talk with George Soros where he was saying the US currency is bad right now, but it's just that all other currencies are worse.

The implication, at least for the short term is, that investor and sovereign wealth funds looking to put their money somewhere are unlikely to move to other currencies; meaning the US may not be forced to raise interest rates in order to attract buyers of their treasuries for some time yet.

Which means we can continue to fund a recovery.
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Merciless Overlord of YML.COM.
Posted by: Yermo
2010-03-02 14:02:02
4 of 17
#3924
in reply to #3915
It's interesting that Russia invested in Canadian dollars at the end of January.

"Russia’s central bank announced on Wednesday that it had started buying Canadian dollars and securities in a bid to diversify its foreign exchange reserves"

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/22f1bd26-05db-11df-8c97-00144...
Posted by: mothman
2010-03-02 14:04:22
5 of 17
#3925
in reply to #3924
Typically, diversification is considered a good idea regardless of the context. Once you have enough cash on hand, which Russia certainly does not, spreading it around just in case is prudent.

Canada with it's natural resources and stability is not a bad bet. I've been coming across more articles discussing the virtues of canada as an investment target.
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Merciless Overlord of YML.COM.
Posted by: Yermo
2010-03-02 14:20:40
6 of 17
#3926
in reply to #3925
For me, being in Canada and earning US dollars has been a problem for the past couple of years. We're beginning to earn more of our income in Canadian dollars now, partly because the US dollar will probably continue to be weak against the Canadian dollar for quite a while. In addition to the plentiful natural resources in Canada, their more conservative financial system didn't take the beating that the US and Britain have, and is recovering more quickly as a result.
Posted by: Ian
2010-03-02 18:40:24
7 of 17
#3927
in reply to #3915
here's one off the rumor mill that's been going around the internet since november.

tungsten filled gold bars?

if this turns out to be true there will be an economic armageddon

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKczs-7BFRI
Posted by: mothman
2010-03-03 16:43:10
8 of 17
#3939
in reply to #3926
I came across this article today which is interesting. I hadn't read about this difference before but from one perspective it makes sense to me:

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/03/03/the-7-...

The only question is what happens if someone is unable to pay their mortgage because of illness or other catastrophic problem ...
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Posted by: Yermo
2010-03-03 17:44:50
9 of 17
#3940
in reply to #3939
It's correct that here in Canada the mortgage crisis is nothing like in the US. The fact that people don't overextend in a crazy market as they do in the States doesn't have anything to do with knowing you can walk away from your mortgage if the real estate market tanks and you lose your job, it's because the banks require a 33% down payment - you can't buy a new house with just a signature. I think this also has the far-reaching effect of getting people to save more from an earlier age and generally encouraging more responsible fiscal habits. It's the whole culture of money that is different and Americans are learning the hard way, or perhaps not learning at all, that the US system has shortcomings.
Posted by: Ian
2010-03-03 17:59:00
10 of 17
#3941
in reply to #3940
looks like we are in "collusion" for just talking about the subject

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2010/03/you-could-...

....
Posted by: mothman
2010-03-04 07:18:12
11 of 17
#3943
in reply to #3939
I guess they will bring back debtors prisons
like they had in England & Medieval Europe.

you still can't pay your debts because your in prison - duh!!!
Posted by: mothman
2010-03-04 07:25:51
12 of 17
#3944
in reply to #3939
think about this:

if you loose your job which is happening
all over the US then the bank forecloses and takes the house back but you would still be required to pay back the loan?

to me that's different then just walking away from a house or property because it lost value.

there are flaws in both systems.
Posted by: mothman
2010-03-04 11:09:23
13 of 17
#3945
in reply to #3944
That's what bankruptcy law is supposed to cover; but unfortunately they changed that to be much less helpful.
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Posted by: Yermo
2010-03-04 13:25:06
14 of 17
#3947
in reply to #3944
It's not just about being required to pay for the loan. By not allowing people to walk away from it, the banks require a larger down payment. The larger down payments keep the prices from rising too far too fast and therefor from dropping too far too fast. The chances of having a house that is worth less than what you owe are way slimmer, especially because you've already paid one third.

Instead of the government saying "we want you to buy a house, no matter what", it's saying "we want you to buy a house as soon as you can afford to." Much more sensible in my opinion.
Posted by: Ian
2010-03-04 13:33:32
15 of 17
#3949
in reply to #3947
Agreed.
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Posted by: Yermo